Catholics, who made up about 20% of midterm voters, shifted from majority red in 2024 to a near-even split this year between Republicans and Democrats, according to both exit polls.
From RNS:
In the Democrats’ historic midterm victory, Catholics and the religiously unaffiliated were key players as Republicans lost ground among most major religious groups, according to exit polls from both NBC News and CNN.
Political scientists and religious scholars said that while faith convictions may have played a role in the shift, economic challenges were likely the biggest factor.
“I don’t particularly think it was a religious election,” political scientist and researcher Ryan Burge told RNS. “I think it was pretty much an economic election, inflation election, a dissatisfaction with Trump election.”
Burge’s comments echoed data Pew Research Center released ahead of the midterms, which showed that most registered voters from the country’s largest faith traditions — Black Protestants (89%), Catholics (87%), white mainline Protestants (83%) and white evangelical Protestants (81%) — all said the economy is very important in shaping their voting decision. Religiously unaffiliated voters, known as “nones,” agreed (83%).
Catholics, who made up about 20% of midterm voters, shifted from majority red in 2024 to a near-even split this year between Republicans and Democrats, according to both exit polls. Two years ago, exit polls showed Catholics favoring Republicans, 59% to 39% in the NBC poll, and 60% to 39% in the CNN poll, which has renamed its exit poll “voter polls” due to a change in methodology. The 2024 NBC poll looked only at 10 key states, as opposed to all 50.
Nichole Flores, a religious studies professor at the University of Virginia, said she wasn’t surprised by the shift in the Catholic vote. “I think the bishops in the United States have done a really good job expanding the range of social issues that are being communicated as being salient to Catholic voters,” she told RNS. She pointed to U.S. bishops’ broader emphasis on immigration, the economy and peace alongside concerns about abortion.
Nicholas Hayes-Mota, a religious studies professor at Santa Clara University, said he’s eager to see breakdowns showing how Latino Catholics and Latino evangelicals voted in the most recent election. The NBC poll showed Latino voters jumped from 51% to 64% Democrat between 2024 and 2026.
While he agreed U.S. bishops’ positions or President Donald Trump’s critique of Pope Leo XIV earlier this year may have swayed Catholic voters overall, for Latino Catholics, he said, “I suspect what the pope is saying or what the bishops are saying matters a lot less than their direct experience of the impact of the president’s immigration policies on their own communities.”
